Aug. 3, 2011 • Noon
Middle Keys to Key West Out of Emily’s Track Error Cone;
Continued Monitoring Advised
Officials at the National Hurricane Center, the Key West National Weather Service Office and Monroe County Emergency Management continue to monitor Tropical Storm Emily.
At this time, the Upper Florida Keys, including Islamorada and Key Largo are included in forecast error track cone. The remainder of the Keys are not.
Emily continues to be poorly organized, although today’s 11 a.m. official forecast calls for Emily to continue as a tropical storm and eventually reach minimal hurricane strength off the mid-Atlantic, well away from Florida.
The hurricane center’s forecast shows the storm taking a turn to the northwest later today and interacting with the Dominican Republic which should result in some weakening before it emerges into an environment favorable for gradual re-strengthening.
Assuming the current forecast track is correct, the bulk of the heavy weather associated with system should remain well offshore the Florida Keys and South Florida mainland, according to Jon Rizzo, warning coordinator for the Key West weather office, that is responsible for weather forecasting for the entire Florida Keys island chain.
Based on the forecast, Keys officials currently are not planning protective actions including resident and visitor evacuations. As a policy, general resident and visitor evacuations are not initiated for tropical storm events. However, officials do advise continued monitoring of the Emily’s progress is advised in the event of changes.