Tropical Storm Emily Advisory #3 Aug. 4, 2011 • 11:30 a.m.
Please download attached PDF for full advisory.
Most of Keys Outside of Emily’s Track Cone;
NHC Track Continues to Show Storm Should Pass East of Keys
Tropical Storm Emily continues churning in the Caribbean, challenging hurricane forecasters because of its relatively disorganized status.
Although the storm has not behaved as anticipated, the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track still indicates it will make a turn to the northwest, eventually passing to the east of the Keys and Florida as a tropical storm. Forecasters also noted that some models were projecting that Emily could loose strength and be downgraded to a tropical depression or tropical wave because it is to encounter high terrain in Hispañola.
At this time, all of the Florida Keys island chain is outside of the three-day forecast error track cone, with the exception of North Key Largo.
Based on the current forecast, severe weather associated with Emily should remain well offshore the Florida Keys and South Florida mainland, according to Jon Rizzo, warning coordinator for the Key West weather office. Senior hurricane specialist Lixion Avila noted in his 11 a.m. forecast discussion that “given the small tropical storm force wind radii on the western side of the cyclone .. a tropical storm watch for the Florida southeast coast is not required at this time.”
Based on current data, Monroe County Emergency Management Director Irene Toner said her office is not planning protective actions including resident and visitor evacuations.
However, Toner recommended continued monitoring of the Emily’s progress in the event the situation changes.
Organizers of the “Grand Tasting,” a signature event of the Key Largo Food & Wine Festival said Thursday morning they are continuing plans to stage the event beginning late Saturday morning at Rowell’s Marina, mile marker 104 in Key Largo.
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Key West National Weather Service Office: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key
Key Largo Food & Wine Festival: http://www.keylargofoodandwinefestival.com