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The original item was published from 10/28/2011 8:50:10 AM to 11/2/2011 12:05:00 AM.

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Posted on: October 28, 2011

[ARCHIVED] Tropics Update: Tropical Storm Rina Friday morning summary

• At 8am ET Friday, the center of Tropical Storm Rina was located 20 miles north of Cancun, Mexico, which is also approximately 396 miles southwest of Key West, Florida.
• Rina continues to weaken due to the influence of dry air, increased wind shear and land interaction and maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 mph. Additional weakening is expected and Rina could be downgraded to a tropical depression later today or early Saturday and a remnant low within 48 hours.
• Rina is moving toward the north-northeast around 4 mph, but a turn to the south should occur later today.
• The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has not changed much since last night and shows Rina making a U-turn in the Yucatan Channel today.
• Rina is then expected to drift south in the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday through Wednesday as high pressure moves into the region from the northwest.
• All of Florida lies outside of the 5 day error cone and the chance of receiving tropical storm force winds in Florida is 0%.
• Although the low-level center of Rina will stay to our south, the wind shear from an approaching cold front entering the region is “taking the top off” of Rina and the mid-level circulation of the storm and much of its associated moisture is being carried northeast towards the Florida Peninsula.
• This may result in periods of heavy rain across portions of Central Florida and South Florida for the next few days. Rainfall totals could reach 2-3 inches through Sunday which may lead to minor urban flooding and flooding of low-lying and poor-drainage areas.
• Also, ocean swells and breezy winds may affect much of Florida and many beaches are expected to have at least a moderate risk of rip currents through this weekend.

• Elsewhere, tropical wave 97L in the western Caribbean Sea remains disorganized and the National Hurricane Center is indicating only a 10% chance of development.

• Also, a low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for tropical development and the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

More information on Tropical Storm Rina can be found at

Briefing slides are attached. Another update will be issued Friday evening.

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